🎢 September has been a yo-yo month for Bitcoin, with price action full of traps snapping like bouncing Betties in the faces of over-leveraged traders. On Accelion, a few of our swing positions also fell victim to this short-term volatility, same for TrenDynamic. These erratic moves usually precede a powerful breakout (one way or the other) though my bias leans bullish.

🤕 The market loves to drain bold traders with sloppy risk management, only to strike fast and hard, leaving them empty-handed when the real move begins. Historically, September tends to bring a retracement of sorts. Since Bitcoin’s inception, the asset has averaged a 3.1% loss during this month, and to this day, no one really knows why.

⚠️ We’re still in a market where indicators and signals remain largely subordinate to classic chart patterns and Fibonacci retracement zones (T.A. rules). That’s precisely why so many automated strategies struggled throughout the month, to put it mildly.

🚦 If this volatility and these sharp opposing moves were to persist in the coming weeks, we should expect rather mixed performances. Of course, we won’t be enduring this “slow bleed” indefinitely, our indicators will tell us if, as in 2022, this inability to break the all-time highs signals the end of the current bull run. We remain in an uptrend, we’re in price discovery, so there’s no need to change our plans, let’s simply accept the idea of going through a few months of mild retracement.

STOP GUESSING, BITCOIN DOESN’T CARE ABOUT YOUR PREDICTIONS 🔮

🔮 It’s still too early to tell how this cycle will unfold or which direction Bitcoin will take next. For now, it’s unclear whether we’ll see a few weeks of sideways consolidation or a breakout continuing September’s late rebound.

💸 I believe most of the liquidity is still flowing into tech and AI, which, let’s be honest, is starting to form a rather scary bubble. What matters for us crypto investors is that Bitcoin remains lagging behind, still the poor cousin in the overall allocation of FOMO-driven investors. Will we have to wait for a stock market reversal to find out whether Bitcoin will finally act as a safe haven, or if it will be dumped like every other risk asset? No one can know for sure.

👉 For information : Cipher Mining ($CIFR ( ▲ 2.67% )  fourth largest public bitcoin miner by market cap) has signed a 10-year, 168 MW AI hosting deal with Fluidstack, backed by a $1.4 billion guarantee from Google, which in return gains a 5.4% equity stake. The company also announced an $800 million private offering of zero-coupon convertible notes due 2031 to fund its data center expansion.

🔄 Analytical tools and pricing models can, however, help us define Bitcoin’s current price range, identifying key support and resistance levels that may guide the next move. But as you know, at blockwealth we dont predict. These 2 following tools are just food for thought.

Rainbow Chart

The Halving Price Regression (HPR) (or Rainbow Chart) is a visual model that tracks Bitcoin’s long-term price trend through its four-year halving cycles.

Every halving reduces the number of new bitcoins created per block by half, making Bitcoin scarcer. The HPR chart plots Bitcoin’s historical price on a logarithmic scale, using color bands to show how “hot” or “cold” the market is compared to its long-term trend.

🟦 🟩 The blue and green zones indicate that Bitcoin is undervalued, often good accumulation periods.

🟨 🟧 The yellow and orange zones show fair value territory, where Bitcoin is typically near its long-term trend.

🟥 The red zone suggests overvaluation, historically near cycle tops or speculative bubbles.

The HPR chart doesn’t predict short-term moves but helps visualize where Bitcoin stands in its broader, multi-cycle trajectory. It’s like a map of market sentiment across time, showing how each halving resets the stage for the next cycle.

Stock To Flow Model

In a nutshell the S2F model tries to predict Bitcoin’s long-term price based on how scarce it becomes after each halving. The chart shows that Bitcoin is largely undervalued, trading well below the $364K level projected by the model.

OUR STRATEGIES IN SEPTEMBER

⤵️ TrenDynamic

Whether on the daily or 3-day timeframe, TrendDynamic got caught in September’s powerful volatility and lost -1,78%. The daily allocation took the hardest hit, with a fakeout around 116K followed by an exit near 112,8K. Toward the end of the month, BTC managed to recover, but not all of our indicators turned green. For now, we’re only 25% invested, waiting to see whether October confirms (or invalidates) the bullish reversal observed at the end of September.

📈 B/Partners

It’s during challenging months like September that the true value of our market-neutral allocation becomes evident. August had been very profitable, with portfolio strategies delivering a solid 2,36% return overall. I’m increasingly convinced that this allocation should be raised to 100% during future bear markets, whenever they come. It’s a topic worth serious consideration.

🏧 Alpine Yield

Alpine Yield saw a slight drop in performance compared to last month, with an annualized return of 21,5% for September. We’re still facing a few practical issues with our provider’s front end (Upshift), which has yet to deliver the development needed for investors to view the live APR. The feature is supposed to be rolled out, though no one really knows when.

🏎️ Accelion

In the spirit of full transparency, Accelion managed to generate positive performance in September, despite having part of its capital still tied up in five rather unfortunate swing trades, no risk of liquidation, but that capital remains unavailable for new opportunities. These positions will eventually pay off, yet they’ve temporarily limited our flexibility. Even so, we still delivered a 42,40% profit for the month of September.

*B/Partners is a multi-manager strategy that invests in funds reporting on a T+15 basis. As a result, the performance published in February reflects January results. Going forward, figures will consistently be shown with a one-month reporting lag, in line with the underlying administrators’ NAV schedules. We have restated historical performance to reflect this monthly reporting delay.