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- blockwealth Insights - March 2025
A month as wild as the weather!
March was particularly turbulent for the cryptocurrency market, marked by heightened volatility and significant price swings. Bitcoin is navigating a minefield! Several factors contributed to this instability:
💥International trade tensions: Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on imported cars, effective April 2, has heightened fears of a global trade war, prompting investors to reduce exposure to risk assets - including cryptocurrencies.
💰Inflation concerns: Macroeconomic data showing higher-than-expected inflation has added uncertainty to financial markets, leading investors to move away from volatile assets like Bitcoin.
🫠Mass liquidations: Over the course of the month, more than $300 million in long positions were liquidated on crypto exchanges, increasing downward pressure on prices.
At blockwealth, we do not believe Bitcoin's price is fundamentally driven by macroeconomic headlines or short-term narratives. In our view, the market may react in the short term to emotional investors, opportunistic speculators, or even political or tactical moves. But the more a price movement - whether upward or downward - is driven by narrative alone, the more brutal and inevitable the correction in the opposite direction will be.
That’s why it’s crucial not to fall into either euphoria or panic with every market jolt. Bitcoin always tends to revert to its long-term trajectory - that of a rare, decentralized, and anti-fragile asset.
STRATEGIES UPDATE
TrenDynamic
Trendynamic remains currently invested at just over 15%, despite a tense market environment. Our investment process prompts us to maintain a minimum allocation, due to the unusual resilience of one of our key indicators, which has yet to turn red. We are monitoring it with the utmost attention.
B/Partners
In February (remember, hedge funds report their NAVs with a delay), our portfolio posted a respectable - albeit negative - performance of -0.41%. For context, Bitcoin ended the month down -17.62%, while the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) recorded a painful -28%. (Yes, that stings.)
Yield Farming
We have enhanced our risk management by adding an extra layer of oversight to the protocols where we deploy capital. Performance remains solid, with a generous 1.16% return for the month of March.
2024 | March | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|
Bitcoin | 97,10% | -2,17% | -10,31% |
TrenDynamic | 106,46% | -0,35% | 1,83% |
B/Partners | 53,4% | -0,41%* | 1,53% |
Yield Farming | 40,53% | 1,16% | 4,22% |
*B/Partners is a multi-managers strategy that includes funds whose performances are calculated with a 15-day delay from the closing date. The results published in February reflect those of January. There will always be a one-month lag.
CRYPTO NEWS
Stablecoins in the Spotlight 🏆
The CEO of JPMorgan - $JPM ( ▼ 0.45% ) anticipates a significant rise in yield-bearing stablecoins such as USDe, BUIDL, and USDY, which could grow to represent up to 50% of the market in the medium term — compared to just 6% today. We fully support this view, as the trend is clearly driven by a growing demand for yield-generating digital assets. These stablecoins owe their appeal to their ability to redistribute income generated by various lending strategies, while remaining shielded from market volatility.
On their side, Fidelity - $FNF ( ▼ 0.89% ) teams are reportedly working on stablecoin-related offerings. One can understand the unease this is causing among the European banking and insurance establishment.
Meanwhile, USDC's market cap (Circle) has hit $60 billion - an all-time high. This may partially be due to Tether being banned in Europe, but beyond that, the total stablecoin market cap has now surged past $230 billion.
Circle, for its part, is preparing for an IPO estimated between $4 and $5 billion, with - you guessed it - the support of $C ( ▲ 0.4% ) and $JPM ( ▼ 0.45% ) . Rumor has it that Kraken might follow in Circle’s footsteps.
Europe is deploying every tool at its disposal to contain the competitive threat posed by digital assets to its traditional banking system. Yet, the ban on Tether (USDT) hasn’t stopped the following reality check:
USDT: $144 billion 🚀
USDC: $60 billion 🚀
All euro-denominated stablecoins combined: $230 million 🕳️ 🇪🇺
CORPORATE UPDATE
The integration of our strategies in collaboration with Gami and Tilvest is now fully operational, and we are pleased to report excellent progress. In recent weeks, we’ve had the opportunity to engage in promising discussions with a European family office and two independent asset management firms based in Monaco, paving the way for high-quality partnerships.
Demand for investment solutions linked to stablecoin-based treasury management is experiencing strong momentum. Both institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals are gradually realizing the unique potential offered by decentralized finance (DeFi). The outlook in this space is not only robust but also holds significant long-term promise.
MACRO VIEW
We favor technical analysis 📊 over macroeconomic forecasting, which - despite its often pompous appearance - remains a highly uncertain approach when applied to an asset class as volatile as ours. That said, if we were to focus on a single macro factor, it would undoubtedly be central bank monetary policy - primarily that of the FED.
In this regard, we believe the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle has become almost secondary in light of Bitcoin’s structural evolution. It is now naturally integrated into the broader universe of asset classes.
Originally driven by mining profitability cycles, Bitcoin has gradually emerged as a leading indicator of global liquidity. The correlation between monetary supply and Bitcoin’s price action is clearly visible - see below. Everyone is free to draw their own conclusions.
Note: When it comes to mining profitability, it must be acknowledged that it has significantly declined in recent years. While some industry players remain fixated on the promise of “green mining” in an attempt to attract ESG-conscious investors, we would not be surprised to see opportunistic short-sellers circling the stocks of mining companies with troubling financials. This is a topic that clearly warrants a deeper analysis — one we plan to publish later this year. 🤗
If we accept that Bitcoin’s valuation is partly driven by monetary injections into the system, then we can rest easy. As I’ve been saying for years: we will see Bitcoin at $1 million before 2050, because markets continue to underestimate the likelihood of a monetary pivot by the Fed.
But let’s not indulge in forecasting - it’s both reckless and pointless. Instead, let’s stay focused on our process 📊. If the Fed does return to an accommodative monetary stance, our technical indicators will quickly pick up the impact of such a shift on Bitcoin’s price.
Let the so-called “distinguished commentators” chase their clickbait narratives. We’ll stick to reading the charts. And what are they telling us right now?